Many people experience anxiety about flying, and it’s natural to wonder about the risks associated with air travel. However, numerous studies and statistics consistently show that commercial aviation is remarkably safe and continues to become even safer over time. This article delves into the data and factors that contribute to making flying one of the safest modes of transportation available today.
Recent research from MIT highlights the incredible advancements in air travel safety. Their study revealed a significant decline in the risk of fatalities in commercial aviation. Between 2018 and 2022, the risk was a mere 1 fatality per 13.7 million passenger boardings globally. To put this into perspective, this is a substantial improvement compared to the period of 2008-2017 (1 per 7.9 million boardings) and a dramatic leap from 1968-1977 (1 per 350,000 boardings).
Alt text: Chart showing the dramatic decrease in commercial air travel fatalities per passenger boarding from 1968-1977 to 2018-2022, illustrating the increasing safety of flying over the decades.
Professor Arnold Barnett, an MIT expert in air travel safety and operations and co-author of the study, emphasizes this positive trend. “Aviation safety continues to get better,” he states. He further notes the consistent and significant rate of improvement, “the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade.” This consistent improvement is a testament to the ongoing efforts within the aviation industry to prioritize passenger safety.
This consistent improvement over decades can be likened to “Moore’s Law” in computing, where technology doubles in power roughly every 18 months. In aviation, safety has roughly doubled each decade since the late 1960s. Passengers are now approximately 39 times safer per boarding compared to the 1968-1977 era.
While the long-term trend is overwhelmingly positive, it’s crucial to acknowledge that maintaining and improving safety is an ongoing endeavor. Incidents like recent near-collisions on runways underscore that vigilance and continuous improvement are paramount in the aviation industry. Safety protocols, technology upgrades, and rigorous training are constantly being refined to mitigate risks.
Several factors contribute to this remarkable safety record. Technological advancements play a crucial role. Modern aircraft are equipped with sophisticated collision avoidance systems, advanced navigation technology, and highly reliable engines. These technological improvements significantly reduce the chances of accidents caused by human error or mechanical failure.
Alt text: Portrait of Professor Arnold Barnett, MIT expert in aviation safety, highlighting his expertise in the field of air travel risk assessment and safety improvements.
Beyond technology, the aviation industry places an enormous emphasis on training and regulation. Pilots undergo extensive and recurrent training, including simulator sessions that prepare them for a wide range of emergency scenarios. Strict regulations and oversight from bodies like the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) ensure that airlines and aviation professionals adhere to the highest safety standards. These organizations continuously analyze data, investigate incidents, and implement new safety measures to prevent future accidents.
It’s also important to consider global disparities in air travel safety. The MIT study categorized countries into three tiers based on their commercial air safety records. While safety is improving globally, the study found that countries in the third tier had a significantly higher fatality rate (36.5 times higher) compared to the top-tier countries in the 2018-2022 period.
The first tier, representing the highest safety standards, includes the United States, European Union countries, and other European nations like Switzerland and the United Kingdom, as well as Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, and New Zealand. The second tier includes countries like Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa, among others. Both the first and second tiers demonstrated a very low death risk per boarding of approximately 1 per 80 million during 2018-2022. The third tier encompasses all remaining countries. While these nations are also improving their safety records, there is still a gap compared to the leading aviation nations.
It is worth noting that the COVID-19 pandemic introduced a separate type of risk associated with air travel – the transmission of the virus. While the study acknowledges this, it’s crucial to differentiate it from the long-term trend of accident-related safety. The study estimates that there were deaths linked to COVID-19 transmission on airplanes during the pandemic, particularly before vaccines were widely available. However, this was a unique and hopefully temporary situation, distinct from the ongoing improvements in accident prevention and overall flight safety.
In conclusion, when considering “how safe is flying,” the data overwhelmingly demonstrates that commercial air travel is remarkably safe and has become progressively safer over the decades. Continuous technological advancements, rigorous training, and stringent regulations contribute to this impressive safety record. While global disparities exist, air safety is improving worldwide. Despite understandable anxieties, flying remains one of the safest ways to travel, and the aviation industry remains committed to making it even safer in the future.
